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| Gerrit Cole. - USA TODAY/Charles LeClaire |
WASHINGTON -- Would it have killed the Pirates to have lost seven more games in 2008? How about four more in 2009?
If just one of those scenarios had come to pass, they could have had the rights to either Stephen Strasburg or Bryce Harper, both of whom went to the Nationals in the 2009 and '10 Major League Baseball drafts.
This being baseball, a sport with a 25-man roster and a truly democratic structure, no star can control outcomes like equivalent talent would in, say, basketball. But tell me the Pirates wouldn't be significantly better off with either of those men on their roster.
Maybe they wouldn't be tuning up for the National League Division Series, like the Nationals were Friday night via a 6-1 win at Nationals Park, but they probably wouldn't have been out of the playoff race for a solid month, either.
We could drone on through the weekend about missed opportunities in the draft.
How nice would Buster Posey have looked behind the plate instead of the Pedro Álvarez experiment at both infield corners? Or, for that matter, what if the Pirates selected current National Matt Wieters instead of Daniel Moskos the year before, in 2007? Wieters didn't become a superstar like Posey, but he was a four-time All-Star and two-time Gold Glove winner for the Orioles before driving down Interstate 95.
Putting those dreams aside, the thoughts of Strasburg and/or Harper on the Pirates are more tangible. They were no-brainer top picks and could've been had for a little more short-term suffering. Even though he's battled arm issues off and on, with a Tommy John surgery prominently featured, Strasburg has contributed 28 wins above replacement (FanGraphs version) in 184 career starts. Harper has chipped in 27.8 FanGraphs WAR since his debut in 2012.
Both Nats stars were prominently featured Friday, with Strasburg allowing just two singles and striking out eight over 7 2/3 innings, while Harper was back in the No. 2 spot of the order for the fourth time in five games. Harper went 0 for 4, but he's still hitting .324/.418/.607 and his swing appeared in tune despite missing several weeks with a knee injury.
"He definitely looked like Bryce Harper," Gerrit Cole said. "He's still a threat. ... He's going to be fine for them."
The analytical Cole will be reduced to a postseason spectator, partially because he's been unable to follow up a five-WAR season in 2015, when he challenged for the Cy Young and sported a 2.60 ERA in 208 innings. Back-to-back subprime years have chiseled away at his stock.
After finishing this season by allowing three runs on eight hits in 5 1/3 on Friday night, Cole has the fourth-best ERA in the Pirates' starting rotation, at 4.26. His career WAR is 15.7 in five seasons, which is respectable, but not what the Pirates might've expected from their lone No. 1 overall pick under Neal Huntington.
After the Pirates' 13th loss in their past 14 road games, much of the postgame chatter surrounded Cole staying on the field for a career-high 33 starts and 203 innings.
"I've held up physically the best I have in my career," Cole said proudly. "I'm in a really good spot right now. Just gotta keep the ball moving and try to stay in a good spot. Definitely a different situation than last year or couple years ago, when I was kinda out of gas."
Following an injury-interrupted 2016, there were enough good signs this summer to keep hopes alive for Cole's final two years of team control. His strikeout rate hopped back above 20 percent and his walk rate ticked down from last year. Also, Cole's average fastball velocity was back above 96 mph, the same as his breakout 2015, and his changeup and curveball seemed to be more deceptive.
"He grew up," Clint Hurdle concluded. "Really took some steps forward this year. You're going to take some lumps up here. Another good opportunity for him to figure some things out. It wasn't about changing lanes. Velocity stayed up all year. There was no backing off anything. He's learning the game."
On the negative side, Cole gave up more fly balls (34 percent of balls in play) than ever before, which in this Year of the Homer led to 31 of them sailing over the fence. That was one off the Pirates single-season record and an incredible 20 more than his previous high. He also allowed four or more runs in six of his last nine starts.
Reminded of those results by a reporter, Cole turned defiant:
"There's a lot of good ballgames in there, a lot more good ballgames than not," Cole said. "I really don't think those home run numbers or ERA had much of an effect. They certainly didn't stop me from doing my job for the entire year."
Then, as if realizing that he wasn't altogether pleased with the body of work, he walked at least some of that back.
"When you talk about getting to the next level, those are some numbers I'd like to see a little lower, for sure," he continued. "There was a lot more good than bad. Some things spiraled out of control at times and we weren't able to put our foot down. But overall I'm just happy with giving my team a chance to win a ballgame or stay in a ballgame and keep the balance of the rotation and the bullpen. That's ultimately what you get paid to do."
I'd argue that the Pirates are paying Cole to lead this rotation, but let's just move on to some Friday night detail.
As Hurdle often says, "if you want to hunt the good or hunt the bad, you can find both," and that was the case here for Cole. He allowed four hits in the first, escaping with only one run allowed when Sean Rodríguez cut down Daniel Murphy at the plate.
From the second inning through the fifth, though, Cole allowed just one ground-ball hit and one walk while temporarily dazzling what will probably be the Nationals' lineup for Game 1 of the NLDS. In the fourth inning, with a 2-2 count on Murphy, Cole fired a 99-mph heater just off the outside corner. Plate ump Paul Nauert didn't give him strike three, but one of the best hitters in the game was impressed.
"Wow," Murphy could be seen to say, while shaking his head. "That's a good pitch."
Cole's next offering was a fading changeup in the same spot that Murphy swung over for the strikeout. The two competitors next matched glares in the sixth, when Cole tried another outside changeup with his 103rd and final pitch. This time Murphy was ready for it and lightly served it into left for an RBI single and a 2-0 Nationals lead.
"We made a lot of good pitches," Cole said. "A couple didn't go where we wanted it, and Stephen was obviously on tonight. Tough to beat them when they get that kind of pitching."
There were no real pushback moments for the Pirates against Strasburg, who, along with Max Scherzer, gives the NL East champs one heck of a combination atop their postseason rotation. At 29, Strasburg just posted his best season ERA at 2.52, ranking second in the NL. He appears to be on top of all four of his plus pitches.
"He's definitely figured out not only how to pitch, but how to pitch with what he's got," said Rodríguez, who struck out in the third on three sliders. "Early on he was hit or miss with his starts. ... Tonight he kept his pitches low enough that he could throw his breaking balls even lower and you'd go fishing. He's got velocity, too. He's tough. He's figured some stuff out, whether it's delivery or release point. All three (sliders) I thought were fastballs coming out of his hand."
The question hung in the air, so I asked it: Can Cole, who just turned 27, ever get to that level?
"Absolutely," Rodríguez said, looking at me like I was crazy. "He's got all the pitches. He's got the drive and the dedication for sure."
Cole doesn't quite have Strasburg's swing-and-miss tools, though, so it could be that he'll have to settle for more modest goals, with that 2015 season getting further in the rear view. For now he'll only aspire to the kind of reviews Strasburg received from the visitors' clubhouse.
"He's a craftsman," Hurdle said, "and he's been doing it for a while."
Maybe one day, the Pirates will see that level from their top pick.
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