CRANBERRY TOWNSHIP, Pa. -- Olli Määttä basically laughed at me. I knew my question was rather obvious, but in this business you have to ask to get the input.
So, Olli, what are some ways Kris Letang helps you break out of your zone?
"Oh, ha!" Määttä said. (I told you he laughed.) "A lot. He's one of those players who can do something out of nothing, really."
Mike Sullivan explained the Letang Effect in a similar fashion, but with a few more words, as is his habit.
“I don’t think there’s any question we get out of our end zone much more efficiently when Tanger’s in the lineup," he said hours before the season opener. "He’s a one-man breakout at times, he can shake a forecheck when the time presents it. We get out of our end zone cleaner and more effectively when he’s out there."
And how about some thoughts from a guy who's been playing with Letang for a decade?
"You have to obviously go back and support your 'D,' whoever it is," Sidney Crosby said. "But with him, you get used to him finding a way to skate himself out of trouble and start the rush sometimes. I think just being aware that he's capable of doing that. Not cheating, but probably not having to come back as far and being aware that the play's probably coming back the other way pretty quickly.
"It makes it a lot easier on all of us, so we don't have to spend time in our own end."
These are the types of statements we typically take at face value, then place upon the backdrop of our own observational experiences. For those of us who respond to hard data, though, talking about Letang's ability to get the puck from the Penguins' zone to the opponents' zone can be frustratingly ... inexact.
Yes, we know he's good at getting the Penguins back on the attack, but how good?
You might recall that I had been tracking several 'microstats' throughout the 2016-17 season. The playoffs (and the Pirates) got in the way of finishing that project for a while, but I now have a full season's worth of data on how efficient the Penguins were in moving the puck up ice.
As I noted last December, before Letang was shut down for the season, he led the team in controlled defensive-zone exits per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, and it wasn't close. He accounted for approximately seven more exits per hour than the nearest teammate, Evgeni Malkin. (Note: A controlled exit was counted when a player either carried or passed the puck successfully over his own blue line. The same standard went for controlled entries at the opposing blue line.)
But as far as the team goes, I was curious to see how they performed with and without Letang, who played 41 of 82 regular-season games in 2016-17. Please note that I didn't chart the Stadium Series outdoor game due to inconsistent camera angles, nor did I include the final two games of the year, in which the Penguins dressed lineups heavy with AHL players.
Also, it's sad to type this after charting 8,081 zone exits and 5,984 zone entries over the past 12 months, but these metrics don't prove anything definitively. For one, Letang isn't on the ice for 60 minutes, although I won't rule out seeing it one day.
Secondly, just because he's on the ice doesn't mean the play would've unfolded differently without him. Let's not forget that Letang's injury coincided with those to Malkin, Määttä and Trevor Daley. It's not a perfect experiment, although I think a worthy one.
With all that being said, here are the with-and-without-Letang breakout numbers for the Penguins last season, with explainers on my homemade metrics to follow:
• Let's talk exits and entries first, since those are the currency of a successful breakout. As you can see above, the Penguins averaged about six more controlled exits per 60 minutes with Letang than without. No surprise at all there, considering his individual success.
The entry results are a little closer, but a gap of more than two per 60 minutes could be significant over a 79-game sample. Hard to say, since there are few, if any, studies like this to use as precedent.
• After that, the results got really interesting, at least in my view. I defined Exit Rate as how often the Penguins exited their zone with clear possession, divided by the number of times they tried. Same formula for Entry Rate.
So, they were a little more efficient getting out of their zone with Letang, but a little less efficient in entering the opponents' zone. That might simply be statistical noise, but I still felt that was odd, so I asked Conor Sheary if there were any significant adjustments forwards have to make with Letang on the ice.
"I don't think you have to adjust where you go," Sheary told me. "A lot of times he can find you through sticks and skates. He has that ability to jump in the play so I think you need to be aware of where he is on the rush maybe, but as far as where you are positionally in the 'D' zone, stuff like that, I think it's pretty much the same."
Based upon that, it's reasonable to say that -- in a system that's tailored around defensemen quickly getting the puck to forwards -- Letang's puck-rushing ability requires some additional read-and-react work from those on the ice with him.
• Clear Rate and Dump Rate measure how often the Penguins simply fired the puck out of their own end (clear) or drove it into the offensive zone (dump). Predictably, considering his 'something from nothing' skill, Letang's presence last season meant that the Penguins didn't feel compelled to clear the puck as much. Not so predictably, they dumped the puck in a little more with Letang than without.
Keep this in mind, though: If we lump dump-ins and controlled entries together, the Penguins directed the puck into the offensive zone 99.1 times per hour of five-on-five play with Letang, but just 90.5 per hour without him. While they had control across the attacking line less often with No. 58, they did better at playing in the opposing end with him.
In a league of 'get pucks deep' and 'play behind their defense' -- and on a team that has enough speed to get to dump-ins more than most -- don't underestimate the power of that. Perhaps this is why the Penguins have had a better Corsi rating (ratio of shot attempts) with Letang on the ice in nine of the 10 seasons he's played in the NHL.
• Finally, the fact that the Penguins carried the puck across blue lines more often with Letang on the ice -- as opposed to making passes -- is likely a positive. When a player carries it, he is probably in open ice, or at least in an advantageous position to attack.
This doesn't apply unconditionally. It's possible that a pass is the quicker, more efficient way to move the puck up the ice, but overall it's interesting how Letang's presence (or absence) affects the Penguins' brand of even-strength play.
"He's, like, a generational guy," Sheary said. "There's only maybe five guys in the league who can do what he does. He's a pretty special player when he plays that way."
Thanks to pioneering analyst Corey Sznajder for the inspiration to take on a project of this magnitude. Check out his comprehensive game-tracking work here. Next time I do this, I'm getting help!
So, Olli, what are some ways Kris Letang helps you break out of your zone?
"Oh, ha!" Määttä said. (I told you he laughed.) "A lot. He's one of those players who can do something out of nothing, really."
Mike Sullivan explained the Letang Effect in a similar fashion, but with a few more words, as is his habit.
“I don’t think there’s any question we get out of our end zone much more efficiently when Tanger’s in the lineup," he said hours before the season opener. "He’s a one-man breakout at times, he can shake a forecheck when the time presents it. We get out of our end zone cleaner and more effectively when he’s out there."
And how about some thoughts from a guy who's been playing with Letang for a decade?
"You have to obviously go back and support your 'D,' whoever it is," Sidney Crosby said. "But with him, you get used to him finding a way to skate himself out of trouble and start the rush sometimes. I think just being aware that he's capable of doing that. Not cheating, but probably not having to come back as far and being aware that the play's probably coming back the other way pretty quickly.
"It makes it a lot easier on all of us, so we don't have to spend time in our own end."
These are the types of statements we typically take at face value, then place upon the backdrop of our own observational experiences. For those of us who respond to hard data, though, talking about Letang's ability to get the puck from the Penguins' zone to the opponents' zone can be frustratingly ... inexact.
 |
| Kris Letang. - MATT SUNDAY / DKPS |
Yes, we know he's good at getting the Penguins back on the attack, but how good?
You might recall that I had been tracking several 'microstats' throughout the 2016-17 season. The playoffs (and the Pirates) got in the way of finishing that project for a while, but I now have a full season's worth of data on how efficient the Penguins were in moving the puck up ice.
As I noted last December, before Letang was shut down for the season, he led the team in controlled defensive-zone exits per 60 minutes of five-on-five play, and it wasn't close. He accounted for approximately seven more exits per hour than the nearest teammate, Evgeni Malkin. (Note: A controlled exit was counted when a player either carried or passed the puck successfully over his own blue line. The same standard went for controlled entries at the opposing blue line.)
But as far as the team goes, I was curious to see how they performed with and without Letang, who played 41 of 82 regular-season games in 2016-17. Please note that I didn't chart the Stadium Series outdoor game due to inconsistent camera angles, nor did I include the final two games of the year, in which the Penguins dressed lineups heavy with AHL players.
Also, it's sad to type this after charting 8,081 zone exits and 5,984 zone entries over the past 12 months, but these metrics don't prove anything definitively. For one, Letang isn't on the ice for 60 minutes, although I won't rule out seeing it one day.
Secondly, just because he's on the ice doesn't mean the play would've unfolded differently without him. Let's not forget that Letang's injury coincided with those to Malkin, Määttä and Trevor Daley. It's not a perfect experiment, although I think a worthy one.
With all that being said, here are the with-and-without-Letang breakout numbers for the Penguins last season, with explainers on my homemade metrics to follow:
• Let's talk exits and entries first, since those are the currency of a successful breakout. As you can see above, the Penguins averaged about six more controlled exits per 60 minutes with Letang than without. No surprise at all there, considering his individual success.
The entry results are a little closer, but a gap of more than two per 60 minutes could be significant over a 79-game sample. Hard to say, since there are few, if any, studies like this to use as precedent.
• After that, the results got really interesting, at least in my view. I defined Exit Rate as how often the Penguins exited their zone with clear possession, divided by the number of times they tried. Same formula for Entry Rate.
So, they were a little more efficient getting out of their zone with Letang, but a little less efficient in entering the opponents' zone. That might simply be statistical noise, but I still felt that was odd, so I asked Conor Sheary if there were any significant adjustments forwards have to make with Letang on the ice.
"I don't think you have to adjust where you go," Sheary told me. "A lot of times he can find you through sticks and skates. He has that ability to jump in the play so I think you need to be aware of where he is on the rush maybe, but as far as where you are positionally in the 'D' zone, stuff like that, I think it's pretty much the same."
Based upon that, it's reasonable to say that -- in a system that's tailored around defensemen quickly getting the puck to forwards -- Letang's puck-rushing ability requires some additional read-and-react work from those on the ice with him.
• Clear Rate and Dump Rate measure how often the Penguins simply fired the puck out of their own end (clear) or drove it into the offensive zone (dump). Predictably, considering his 'something from nothing' skill, Letang's presence last season meant that the Penguins didn't feel compelled to clear the puck as much. Not so predictably, they dumped the puck in a little more with Letang than without.
Keep this in mind, though: If we lump dump-ins and controlled entries together, the Penguins directed the puck into the offensive zone 99.1 times per hour of five-on-five play with Letang, but just 90.5 per hour without him. While they had control across the attacking line less often with No. 58, they did better at playing in the opposing end with him.
In a league of 'get pucks deep' and 'play behind their defense' -- and on a team that has enough speed to get to dump-ins more than most -- don't underestimate the power of that. Perhaps this is why the Penguins have had a better Corsi rating (ratio of shot attempts) with Letang on the ice in nine of the 10 seasons he's played in the NHL.
• Finally, the fact that the Penguins carried the puck across blue lines more often with Letang on the ice -- as opposed to making passes -- is likely a positive. When a player carries it, he is probably in open ice, or at least in an advantageous position to attack.
This doesn't apply unconditionally. It's possible that a pass is the quicker, more efficient way to move the puck up the ice, but overall it's interesting how Letang's presence (or absence) affects the Penguins' brand of even-strength play.
"He's, like, a generational guy," Sheary said. "There's only maybe five guys in the league who can do what he does. He's a pretty special player when he plays that way."
Thanks to pioneering analyst Corey Sznajder for the inspiration to take on a project of this magnitude. Check out his comprehensive game-tracking work here. Next time I do this, I'm getting help!
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